Anti-Netanyahu Camp Eyes Minority Government Option as Bennett and Liberman Push Back

Israel's opposition bloc is weighing the possibility of a minority government after the coming elections, though two of its key figures, Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Liberman, oppose the idea. At the same time, the parties are reportedly nearing agreement on replacing Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana before any coalition deal is struck.

Most polls show the anti-Netanyahu camp ahead of the outgoing coalition bloc. Even so, the Zionist parties seeking change fall short of the 61 seats needed to govern under their current agreements. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his allies are also far from a majority in many surveys, although some polls give the right-wing bloc enough seats. The electoral threshold could shift the seat distribution, and a small number of votes might decide whether Israel gets a new government or faces another round of turmoil.

Gadi Eisenkot wants to lead the bloc and be its main candidate to form the next government. He rejects serving under Netanyahu, even in a rotation arrangement, and has raised the idea of a minority government if the change-seeking parties win 58 or 59 seats. Under that plan, a government would be sworn in after winning a confidence vote without permanent backing from 61 MKs, and would then try to widen its parliamentary base.

Legally, swearing in a government requires a majority in the confidence vote, not 61 votes in favor, so abstentions could allow it to take office. A constructive vote of no confidence against an incumbent government is different, since it requires 61 MKs to back an alternative. The minority scenario could therefore matter while a government is being formed, but it would not let the bloc remove a sitting Netanyahu government by simple majority.

Eisenkot has not ruled out outside support from Ra'am, but no agreed formula exists for carrying out the plan. Liberman categorically rejects a minority government, even a transitional one, and insists on a Zionist majority from the start. A unity government with Netanyahu is also unacceptable to him, and he says another election would be better than a government that fails his conditions. He has suggested bringing Likud MKs into a government without Netanyahu and claimed some would be willing, but he has named none, and no public talks with Likud MKs are under way.

Bennett and Yair Lapid, who head the Beyachad list, likewise demand a Zionist government and refuse to rely on the votes or abstentions of Arab parties. Democrats chairman Yair Golan has not ruled out cooperating with Ra'am. A meeting between Eisenkot and Liberman this week ended with a joint call to raise voter turnout but did not settle their disagreement. Leadership rivalry also continues, with Eisenkot hoping to head the largest party and Bennett viewing himself as a natural candidate because of his experience as prime minister.

On the speaker, the bloc sees replacing Ohana as a step that could come before any government is formed. The aim is to give Netanyahu's opponents control of the parliamentary agenda even if he stays on as head of a caretaker government. The speaker is elected early in a new Knesset's term in a public vote, and the bloc could draw on Arab party MKs to assemble a majority behind an agreed candidate.

Names raised include Chili Tropper, Matan Kahana and Elazar Stern from Eisenkot's list, Meirav Ben-Ari and Eitan Ginzburg from the Bennett-Lapid list, Efrat Rayten of the Democrats, and attorney Oded Forer of Yisrael Beytenu. No consensus candidate has been announced. Liberman estimated this week that as many as one-third of outgoing coalition MKs might vote against Ohana, though they would have to do so openly.

The bloc also wants to advance a state commission of inquiry into October 7, changes to conscription law, limits on the prime minister's tenure, and repeal of some of the outgoing government's judicial changes. Liberman additionally seeks a bar on people facing criminal charges serving as prime minister. No binding agreement exists on the details or the order, though party teams have begun coordinating. Obstacles remain: not every bloc member backs every judicial change, a new speaker would not automatically deliver a legislative majority, and laws aimed at Netanyahu could face constitutional hurdles. The memory of the Bennett-Lapid government, which collapsed before completing promised laws, also looms over the effort.